Tuesday, 15 February 2011

National Weights Inspire Salmon Punt

Excitement and trepidation abounds as the weights for the 2011 Grand National have been announced this morning. With that in mind, here is a very brief outline of Salmon thoughts at present.

Last year's winner Don't Push It seems an obvious place to start and looks like he could be fairly treated only 4 pounds higher for his efforts, although no horse has won back to back Nationals since...Red Rum. A hard task to follow certainly, but the 20/1 available may catch some eyes.

Other animals with strong form in the great race (Big Fella Thanks and State Of Play) also have to enter calculations at this stage, the former priced at 20/1 and the latter at 25s - a price that may well be shorter on the day given his two placed efforts in recent years.

Paul Nicholls has never won The World's Greatest Horserace and he saddles Niche Market (as well as Big Fella Thanks) who looks every inch a National horse and is available at 16/1.

Elsewhere, Synchronised and Notre Pere have both won Welsh Nationals so ought to have some sort of look in.

In spite of all this, the temptation is to look for more of a price at this stage and the two that have the Salmon's gills a-twitching are Frankie Figg and Mobaasher.
Frankie Figg is available at 66/1 and whilst we would like to know for certain that a run was on the cards (and that he stays a trip like this), the raw talent is there for the keen front-runner.

Mobaasher on the other hand is engaged at the Grand National Trial this weekend (where he is installed as 8/1 second fav) and is an animal who is showing more solid form of late. Bearing in mind that West End Rocker, favourite for the aforementioned race at Haydock on Saturday, is priced as short as 20/1 for the big one, the 50s with Bet365 (Best Odds Guaranteed) about Mobaasher come April could look silly.
His price will tumble if he wins on Saturday and for that reason I suggest a small each way go on Mobaasher in both races. True, if he flops at the weekend, he may not make it to the National, but as far as antepost bets go, there must be worse looking options. Get on both races with Bet365 antepost and use up the loose change from last months winnings!

Mobaasher (Grand National Trial) 8-1 Bet365 [1/4 odds 1,2,3,4] 0.3 points e/way
Mobaasher (Grand National) 50-1 Bet365 [1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5] 0.15 points e/way





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