Well, after an excellent Cheltenham, it was disappointment on two counts for Salmons, with Aston Villa woefully losing their home encounter with Wolves and Enland failing to take The Grand Slam after capitulating in their final Six Nations Rugby match against Ireland.
One ray of hope has been the steady progress of Sri Lanka in the ICC World Cup who have delighted Salmon followers by reaching their second consecutive final. Available at 11-10 only now, Salmons who invested half a point on the Sri Lankans at 23-5 will be looking forward to the final this weekend.
Turning our attention back to Racing, The Lincoln looks it's usual minefield and despite running throught the stats and attempting to find something, the best we could do was the recently (and heavily) backed favourite - Taqleed, so we're going to avoid a punt and enjoy the race.
One race we won't be avoiding having a tickle at is the Grand National. Our Antepost tip has failed to make the line up, but second choice in our Antepost preview (see Tuesday 15th Feb), a horse called Frankie Figg is still in. Bet 365 offer Best Odds, Non-Runner No Bet AND 5 places, so we're going to put a little on this front running type at a staggering 80-1.
Of our other highlighted horses, both Big Fella Thanks and Niche Market are steady in the market and although they are available at 16s with other firms, Bet365 is the place to bet these animals at 14s with the 5 places paid.
2.5 points invested then in the sequence below. However if you are a fan of State Of Play, we are still keen. We are hoping to find 25-1 with one of the firms paying 5 places, so hold fire on that one for now and let's bask in the fact that Salmons are still 23.5 points up for the year.
Big Fella Thanks (Grand N'nal) 0.5 points e/way [14-1 Bet365 1/4 odds 1,2,3,45]
Niche Market (Grand National) 0.5 points e/way [14-1 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5]
Frankie Figg (Grand National) 0.25 points e/way [80-1 Bet 365 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5]
Profit/Loss Update:
2011 P/L = +23.5 points (up to 30/03/2011)
Mar 2011 = +10.87
Feb 2011 = +0.73
Jan 2011 = +11.9
2010 Total P/L = +7.75
Tuesday, 29 March 2011
Saturday, 19 March 2011
Super Salmon laughing all the way to the bank!
Followers, desist with your applause! Salmons were cock-a-hoop yesterday with two winners and a second. Had Baby Run got over the penultimate fence we may have been celebrating a hat trick!
However +8.88 points for the day or +16.25 for the festival.
Let's use up 2.88 points on Villa to beat Wolves today. The Villans may be patchy at best, but at prices like 10-11 to beat Wolves, have to be backed.
Aston Villa to beat Wolves (2.88 points win) 10-11 Bet365
However +8.88 points for the day or +16.25 for the festival.
Let's use up 2.88 points on Villa to beat Wolves today. The Villans may be patchy at best, but at prices like 10-11 to beat Wolves, have to be backed.
Aston Villa to beat Wolves (2.88 points win) 10-11 Bet365
Thursday, 17 March 2011
Cheltenham Day Four
Well, a reasonable return from day three of 5.44 points from 4.5 staked. Steady! This leaves us with +25.44 points for the year so far.
Friday looks even more difficult than ever, but surprisingly we have plenty to tuck into punt-wise.
There is only one place to start and that is the Gold Cup. Defending champion Imperial Commander heads the betting, followed by King George hero Long Run. Then we find Denman and Kauto Star locked together next in the market. Of those four the only one that makes any appeal is Long Run. The three former winners will have to defy age related stats to get one of there heads in front, and I think are all past there best. I'd love to see Kauto win, but fear he is a mere shadow of the horse that became the first to regain this prize in 2009. Of the three, Denman would be my pick, but I think it's time for a new champ.
It will dismay followers to know that I just can't put my finger on why I don't fancy Long Run. He just doesn't appeal and I think Kempes could be the one to be with. AP is onboard, he won a Grade 1 last time out and could be value at 11-1.
The Triumph Hurdle is the day's opener and Salmon's are advised to join us with a couple of shillings on Zarkander. Extremely impressive at Kempton, 7-1 looks a grand price with improvement expected to come.
The Vincent O'Brien is next and it could pay to tickle Get Me Out Of Here who is better than the bare form suggests. Meanwhile our namesake Bob's Worth has had recent form franked and should take all the beating in the Albert Bartlett.
Baby Run won the Foxhunter Chase last year and after two fine winning performances this season I can't see a reason to oppose, whilst in the final race of the festival, Oh Crick is fancied to continue his gradual rejuvenation and go close.
Monster punt! Six of the seven races with suggestions, something the Salmon does not usually do! For this reason, staking suggestions are kept small, and leave us +7.37 points for the festival whatever happens.
Enjoy the day!
Kempes (3:20 Cheltenham) 11-1 Bet365 1/4 odds 1,2,3 [1 point e/way]
Zarkandar (1:30 C'ham) 7-1 Bet365 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 [0.5 points e/way]
Get Me Out Of Here (2:05 C'ham) 16-1 Paddy Power 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5 [0.25 points e/way]
Bob's Worth (2:40 C'ham) 7-2 William Hill 0.5 points win
Baby Run (4:00 C'ham) 7-2 Paddy Power 0.5 points win
Oh Crick (5:15 C'ham) 10-1 Coral 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 [0.47 points e/way]
Friday looks even more difficult than ever, but surprisingly we have plenty to tuck into punt-wise.
There is only one place to start and that is the Gold Cup. Defending champion Imperial Commander heads the betting, followed by King George hero Long Run. Then we find Denman and Kauto Star locked together next in the market. Of those four the only one that makes any appeal is Long Run. The three former winners will have to defy age related stats to get one of there heads in front, and I think are all past there best. I'd love to see Kauto win, but fear he is a mere shadow of the horse that became the first to regain this prize in 2009. Of the three, Denman would be my pick, but I think it's time for a new champ.
It will dismay followers to know that I just can't put my finger on why I don't fancy Long Run. He just doesn't appeal and I think Kempes could be the one to be with. AP is onboard, he won a Grade 1 last time out and could be value at 11-1.
The Triumph Hurdle is the day's opener and Salmon's are advised to join us with a couple of shillings on Zarkander. Extremely impressive at Kempton, 7-1 looks a grand price with improvement expected to come.
The Vincent O'Brien is next and it could pay to tickle Get Me Out Of Here who is better than the bare form suggests. Meanwhile our namesake Bob's Worth has had recent form franked and should take all the beating in the Albert Bartlett.
Baby Run won the Foxhunter Chase last year and after two fine winning performances this season I can't see a reason to oppose, whilst in the final race of the festival, Oh Crick is fancied to continue his gradual rejuvenation and go close.
Monster punt! Six of the seven races with suggestions, something the Salmon does not usually do! For this reason, staking suggestions are kept small, and leave us +7.37 points for the festival whatever happens.
Enjoy the day!
Kempes (3:20 Cheltenham) 11-1 Bet365 1/4 odds 1,2,3 [1 point e/way]
Zarkandar (1:30 C'ham) 7-1 Bet365 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 [0.5 points e/way]
Get Me Out Of Here (2:05 C'ham) 16-1 Paddy Power 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5 [0.25 points e/way]
Bob's Worth (2:40 C'ham) 7-2 William Hill 0.5 points win
Baby Run (4:00 C'ham) 7-2 Paddy Power 0.5 points win
Oh Crick (5:15 C'ham) 10-1 Coral 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 [0.47 points e/way]
Cheltenham Day Three
A hugely disappointing run form Time For Rupert scuppered our mini each way double yesterday, but Sizing Europe was soon on hand to push Salmon followers toa timely tonic of 14.5 points.
Another great dyas racing ahead with the Ryanair Chase and the World Hurdle the highlights.
Unfortunately due to technical problems at Salmon Heights, a late post means we have scant time in which to justify todays selections.
Kalahari King has been my idea of a Ryanair winner for a while (wish I'd got on at 25s) and at 5-1 with Bet365 looks an absolute each way bet to nothing.
We all love a fairytale and no-one would begrudge Big Bucks a third World Hurdle, but at the prices (4-1 Bet365) Grand Crus must be backed. Other firms have him as short as 9-4 and again this looks like a solid each way player.
Kalahari King (2:40 C'ham) 1.25 points e/way [5-1 Bet365] 1/4 odds 1,2,3
Grand Crus (3:20 Cheltenham) 1 point e/way [4-1 Bet365] 1/4 odds 1,2,3
Another great dyas racing ahead with the Ryanair Chase and the World Hurdle the highlights.
Unfortunately due to technical problems at Salmon Heights, a late post means we have scant time in which to justify todays selections.
Kalahari King has been my idea of a Ryanair winner for a while (wish I'd got on at 25s) and at 5-1 with Bet365 looks an absolute each way bet to nothing.
We all love a fairytale and no-one would begrudge Big Bucks a third World Hurdle, but at the prices (4-1 Bet365) Grand Crus must be backed. Other firms have him as short as 9-4 and again this looks like a solid each way player.
Kalahari King (2:40 C'ham) 1.25 points e/way [5-1 Bet365] 1/4 odds 1,2,3
Grand Crus (3:20 Cheltenham) 1 point e/way [4-1 Bet365] 1/4 odds 1,2,3
Tuesday, 15 March 2011
Cheltenham Day Two
A disappointing return of just 3.42 points for 3.63 staked means a slight loss for the Salmon on day one.
Day two looks deceptively tricky and as such probably a day to punt with caution. The first race is a 4 mile lottery which we won't get involved with. The highlight of the day at 3:20 is The Queen Mother Champion Chase. My selection for this race is not one of the big two heading the market, but Sizing Europe. Last years Arkle winner has been steady rather than stunning since, but will carry my colours for one simple reason. The last TWELVE Arkle winners who returned the following season to compete in this race ALL finished in the first 3, five of which were winners. No further explanation required, as, with his price thrice that of Big Zeb or Master Minded he is the race value surely.
In the previous two races (The Neptune and The RSA Chase) I'm afraid I'm with both favourites, so we'll just have our loose change as a 0.21 point each way double on So Young and Time For Rupert, to keep us interested.
Sizing Europe (3:20 Cheltenham) 1 point e/way [9-1 Sportingbet 1/4 odds 1,2,3]
So Young & Time For Rupert ( 2:05 & 2:40 Cheltenham)
0.21 e/way double [3-1 & 5-2 Totesport both 1/4 odds 1,2,3]
Day two looks deceptively tricky and as such probably a day to punt with caution. The first race is a 4 mile lottery which we won't get involved with. The highlight of the day at 3:20 is The Queen Mother Champion Chase. My selection for this race is not one of the big two heading the market, but Sizing Europe. Last years Arkle winner has been steady rather than stunning since, but will carry my colours for one simple reason. The last TWELVE Arkle winners who returned the following season to compete in this race ALL finished in the first 3, five of which were winners. No further explanation required, as, with his price thrice that of Big Zeb or Master Minded he is the race value surely.
In the previous two races (The Neptune and The RSA Chase) I'm afraid I'm with both favourites, so we'll just have our loose change as a 0.21 point each way double on So Young and Time For Rupert, to keep us interested.
Sizing Europe (3:20 Cheltenham) 1 point e/way [9-1 Sportingbet 1/4 odds 1,2,3]
So Young & Time For Rupert ( 2:05 & 2:40 Cheltenham)
0.21 e/way double [3-1 & 5-2 Totesport both 1/4 odds 1,2,3]
Monday, 14 March 2011
Cheltenham Day One
Devastating news broke on Sunday morning that Binocular would not be returning to Cheltenham to defend his Champion Hurdle crown. Nicky Henderson does not seem to have managed the situation very well, but surprisingly a number of bookies have. If you backed Binocular antepost, do check with your bookie - many are returning stakes.
Unfortunately, Salmon followers took a Betfair price and now feel rather green about the gills. It seemed inconceivable that Binocular would not run just a month ago....
Anyhow, on to a spectacular first day's racing at Cheltenham. The big race of the day is The Champion Hurdle, but as our antepost selection no longer runs, we are going to sit back and enjoy the race without a betting suggestion. For the record I would take Menorah or Mille Chief, but do not think there is sufficient value in what could be a hugely open race.
The banker of the day (and possibly of the festival) looks to be Quevega in the mares race. We're always hesitant to tuck in to short prices, but Sportingbets 11-10 looks very reasonable indeed. With 2011 profit/loss at +12.63 points, we'll use up some loose change with 1.63 points on the nose.
The race I'm most interested in is the curtain raiser - The Supreme Novices. Short priced favourites have been beaten in the last two renewals of this contest, and although Cue Card is a worthy favourite, I'd like to take him on with forgotten horse Zaidpour. This animal has undoubted class and were it not for a couple of below par runs (both of which were slightly unfortunate) I would expect the price to be half the size. 0.5 points e/w could prove just the tonic. I would usually suggest backing with Bet365 as they pay out on fourth, but Paddy Power will return the win part of your bet if Cue Card does take it and for that reason will chance only the first 3 places.
The Arkle betting does not look to have an awful lot of value, but I really like Medermit for this, so will take a small plunge at the widely available 3-1.
Finally, in the Cross Country Chase, I have to have a little sentimental bit on L'Ami. We all know that Enda Bolger knows how to win these races and I would love to see L'Ami get the better of rival and stablemate Garde Champetre.
Quevega (4:40 Cheltenham) 11-10 Sportingbet [1.63 points win]
Zaidpour (1:30 Cheltenham) 10-1 Paddy Power [0.5 points e/way 1/4 odds 1,2,3,]
Medermit (2:05 Cheltenham) 3-1 Bet 365 [0.5 points win]
L'Ami (4:00 Cheltenham) 7-1 Sportingbet [0.25 points e/way 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4]
Unfortunately, Salmon followers took a Betfair price and now feel rather green about the gills. It seemed inconceivable that Binocular would not run just a month ago....
Anyhow, on to a spectacular first day's racing at Cheltenham. The big race of the day is The Champion Hurdle, but as our antepost selection no longer runs, we are going to sit back and enjoy the race without a betting suggestion. For the record I would take Menorah or Mille Chief, but do not think there is sufficient value in what could be a hugely open race.
The banker of the day (and possibly of the festival) looks to be Quevega in the mares race. We're always hesitant to tuck in to short prices, but Sportingbets 11-10 looks very reasonable indeed. With 2011 profit/loss at +12.63 points, we'll use up some loose change with 1.63 points on the nose.
The race I'm most interested in is the curtain raiser - The Supreme Novices. Short priced favourites have been beaten in the last two renewals of this contest, and although Cue Card is a worthy favourite, I'd like to take him on with forgotten horse Zaidpour. This animal has undoubted class and were it not for a couple of below par runs (both of which were slightly unfortunate) I would expect the price to be half the size. 0.5 points e/w could prove just the tonic. I would usually suggest backing with Bet365 as they pay out on fourth, but Paddy Power will return the win part of your bet if Cue Card does take it and for that reason will chance only the first 3 places.
The Arkle betting does not look to have an awful lot of value, but I really like Medermit for this, so will take a small plunge at the widely available 3-1.
Finally, in the Cross Country Chase, I have to have a little sentimental bit on L'Ami. We all know that Enda Bolger knows how to win these races and I would love to see L'Ami get the better of rival and stablemate Garde Champetre.
Quevega (4:40 Cheltenham) 11-10 Sportingbet [1.63 points win]
Zaidpour (1:30 Cheltenham) 10-1 Paddy Power [0.5 points e/way 1/4 odds 1,2,3,]
Medermit (2:05 Cheltenham) 3-1 Bet 365 [0.5 points win]
L'Ami (4:00 Cheltenham) 7-1 Sportingbet [0.25 points e/way 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4]
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