More great racing live on Channel 4 today, with the Group One Sussex Stakes the highlight (325 Goodwood). It promises to be a great race with Irish Guineas and St James's Palace Stakes winner Canford Cliffs taking on Aiden O'Brien's Rip Van Winkle, one of last season's top 3 year olds, who attempts to defend his Sussex crown.
I must preface my betting suggestion, by saying that I am a big fan of Canford Cliffs and believe him to be the best 3 year old miler around. I also think he should and probably will win this race. However, at a price of 4/6 I can't see him as a betting proposition.
Rip Van Winkle attempts to win this for the second year running and although only managing a disappointing 6th in the Queen Anne last time out at Ascot, is still a class horse. True, no animal has ever won back to back Sussex Stakes, but I think Canford Cliffs may struggle a little against older rivals, particularly if not settling well.
Bet 365 offer best odds guaranteed and each way terms of 1/4 the odds 1,2,3 and for me the bet will be Rip Van Winkle each way. This may seem an unusual bet at the current price of 5-2, but look at this way....
I can't see any way that 3 of these horses will finish ahead of Rip, so that is the place part of the bet, at odds of 5-8. You then get a cracking shout at winning, particularly if he drifts to 3-1 on the day.
So, if placed (which seems all but nailed on) you lose only 0.75 of a point and if he wins you profit by 6.25 points.
For this reason let's play up yesterday's winnings and have 2 points each way. Go on the Winkle!!!
Rip Van Winkle (3.25 Goodwood) 2 points each way [5-2 Bet365]
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